Репозиторий Университета

© 2021, The Author(s). Background: The aim of this survey was to evaluate the severity of dental caries among children living in Zanskar Valley (Ladakh, India) and its association with anthropometric and background variables. Methods: This cross‐sectional survey was conducted on schoolchildren divided into four age groups (< 6, ≥ 6 < 11, ≥ 11 < 14 and > 14 years of age). A total of 1474 schoolchildren (607 males, 41.2%) were examined. Actual caries prevalence (dt/DT) and gingival bleeding were recorded by four calibrated dentists. An ad hoc questionnaire evaluated general health, eating habits, oral hygiene and the self-perception of oral conditions. Height, weight, waist circumference, heart-rate and oxygen-saturation were also collected directly by examiners. Responses to questionnaire items were treated as categorical or ordinal variables. The relationship between children’s caries data, gingival bleeding, gender, Body Mass Index (BMI) following the International Obesity Task Force, waist circumference and questionnaire items was assessed using the Kruskal–Wallis test and Pearson correlation. Conditional ordinal logistic regression was used to analyse associations among caries severity, gender, BMI, waist circumference, oxygen saturation and questionnaire items. A forward stepwise logistic regression procedure was also carried-out to estimate the ORs of gingival bleeding prevalence and the covariates derived from examination or questionnaire. Results: Caries was almost ubiquitarian with only 10.0% of caries-free children (dt/DT = 0). Caries severity, in both primary and permanent dentitions, was statistically significantly related to gender, waist circumference, BMI, oral hygiene frequency and self-reported chewing problems (p < 0.01 in both dentitions). An increasing relative risk for caries in permanent dentition compared to caries-free subjects was observed in children with a low BMI (RRR = 1.67, 95%CI = 1.54/2.83 for subjects with 1–3 caries lesions and RRR = 1.52, 95%CI = 1.36/1.74 for subjects with > 3 caries lesions); also, children with reduced waist circumference had a higher relative risk to have 1–3 caries lesions (RRR = 2.16, 95%CI = 1.84/2.53) and an even higher risk to have more than 3 caries lesions (RRR = 4.22, 95%CI = 3.33/5.34). Conclusions: A significant impact of untreated caries lesions was observed in Ladakh schoolchildren; low BMI values and reduced waist circumference showed to be the main caries risk predictors. Preventive and intervention programmes should be implemented to improve children's oral health.

© 2021, The Author(s). Background: The aim of this survey was to evaluate the severity of dental caries among children living in Zanskar Valley (Ladakh, India) and its association with anthropometric and background variables. Methods: This cross‐sectional survey was conducted on schoolchildren divided into four age groups (< 6, ≥ 6 < 11, ≥ 11 < 14 and > 14 years of age). A total of 1474 schoolchildren (607 males, 41.2%) were examined. Actual caries prevalence (dt/DT) and gingival bleeding were recorded by four calibrated dentists. An ad hoc questionnaire evaluated general health, eating habits, oral hygiene and the self-perception of oral conditions. Height, weight, waist circumference, heart-rate and oxygen-saturation were also collected directly by examiners. Responses to questionnaire items were treated as categorical or ordinal variables. The relationship between children’s caries data, gingival bleeding, gender, Body Mass Index (BMI) following the International Obesity Task Force, waist circumference and questionnaire items was assessed using the Kruskal–Wallis test and Pearson correlation. Conditional ordinal logistic regression was used to analyse associations among caries severity, gender, BMI, waist circumference, oxygen saturation and questionnaire items. A forward stepwise logistic regression procedure was also carried-out to estimate the ORs of gingival bleeding prevalence and the covariates derived from examination or questionnaire. Results: Caries was almost ubiquitarian with only 10.0% of caries-free children (dt/DT = 0). Caries severity, in both primary and permanent dentitions, was statistically significantly related to gender, waist circumference, BMI, oral hygiene frequency and self-reported chewing problems (p < 0.01 in both dentitions). An increasing relative risk for caries in permanent dentition compared to caries-free subjects was observed in children with a low BMI (RRR = 1.67, 95%CI = 1.54/2.83 for subjects with 1–3 caries lesions and RRR = 1.52, 95%CI = 1.36/1.74 for subjects with > 3 caries lesions); also, children with reduced waist circumference had a higher relative risk to have 1–3 caries lesions (RRR = 2.16, 95%CI = 1.84/2.53) and an even higher risk to have more than 3 caries lesions (RRR = 4.22, 95%CI = 3.33/5.34). Conclusions: A significant impact of untreated caries lesions was observed in Ladakh schoolchildren; low BMI values and reduced waist circumference showed to be the main caries risk predictors. Preventive and intervention programmes should be implemented to improve children's oral health.

© 2019 The Author(s). Background: Spontaneous pregnancy loss and implantation failure after assisted reproductive technologies (ART) are very common occurrences. Although 50-60% of all cases remains unexplained, various predisposing factors, including thrombophilias, have been identified. Thus, the potential benefit of a prophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparins in improving outcomes has been often investigated over the years. However, the majority of studies are observational and results from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are inconclusive, probably due to heterogeneity and limited sample size. To cover these unmet needs and to have further data mainly based on the real-life clinical management, we designed these multicenter registries. Methods: OTTILIA (Observational sTudy on antiThrombotic prevention in thrombophILIA and pregnancy loss) and FIRST (recurrent Failures in assIsted Reproductive Techniques) registries are two prospective, multicenter, observational studies to evaluate pregnancy or ART outcomes in consecutive women with previous reproductive failures after spontaneous or assisted conception, respectively. All enrolled women are observed from their first visit after positive pregnancy test (OTTILIA) or before commencing a new ART cycle (FIRST) until the end of pregnancy or ART procedure (negative pregnancy test/end of pregnancy, if successful cycle), respectively. Data are collected by means of questionnaires and recorded in a central database. Follow-up investigations are performed during hospital stay, routine clinical follow-up visits or telephone interviews. Primary outcome is live birth rate in the OTTILIA register and clinical pregnancy rate in the FIRST. Discussion: Although RCTs are the 'gold standard' for evaluating treatment outcomes, we believe that our registries represent a valid alternative in improving knowledge on mechanisms involved in reproductive failures and supporting future clinical decisions. Trial registration: NCT 02385461, retrospectively registered 5 March 2015 (OTTILIA); NCT 02685800, registered 10 February 2016 (FIRST).

© 2018, Pediatria Ltd.. All rights reserved. Objective of the research: to dentify risk factors for growth retardation in patients with juvenile scleroderma (JSD). The presented data show that the most unfavorable factors for growth retardation in patients with JSD are the systemic form of the disease, debut age less than 4 years. Other unfavorable factors of growth retardation developing are father's height less than 175 cm and a mother's height less than 165 cm. Analysis of the effect of glucocorticoid saverage daily dose during the year on the growth rate in patients with JSD, normalization of growth rates was noted with its decrease to 0,2 mg/kg/day or less.

© 2018 Pirogov Russian National Research Medical University. All rights reserved. Early detection of dorsopathies is an urgent task for primary care physicians, since such conditions can combine with other chronic noncommunicable diseases (NСD) and adversely affect the course all comorbidities, consequently disimproving the quality of life of patients and increasing the frequency of their requests for medical assistance. This study aimed to determine the value of routine checkups in the context of detection of dorsopathies, NCD, and identification of risk factors (RF). We have retrospectively analyzed the patient records database of a rural outpatient clinic in the Tver region (years 2015 to 2017). The prevalence of dorsopathies and NCD RF were the subjects investigated. Fisher's exact test and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) were applied for the purposes of statistical processing of the results. We discovered that dorsopathy most often was a comorbidity to arterial hypertension and gastrointestinal tract diseases; it was strongly related to the NCD (SRCC = 0.506), age (SRCC = 0.383), slightly less so - to hypodynamia (SRCC = 0.146), type of the patient's occupation (intellectual or physical labor) (SRCC = 0.07). Routine checkups improve the rate of detection of dorsopathy: the more patients undergo such examinations, the more cases of dorsopathy are diagnosed. Thus, it is necessary to increase the number of working people attending the checkups in order to detect dorsopathies early and prevent them effectively.

© 2018 Limited Liability Company KlinMed Consulting. All Rights Reserved. The article covers the development of the problem of sudden cardiac death prevention with the implantable cardioverterdefibrillators from the moment of creation of these devices to our days. The current concept of primary prevention of sudden cardiac death, based on the severity of manifestation of heart failure and left ventricular dysfunction, is not effective enough. Its practical application is difficult because it requires mass application of implantable defibrillators, with low predictive accuracy of these criteria in terms of development of lifethreatening arrhythmias. The development of methods for visualizing the myocardium, allowing to assess the severity of myocardial fibrosis, as well as the possibilities of medical genetics, at the present stage, allows us to clarify indications for implantation of cardioverterdefibrillators and thereby significantly improve the concept of preventing sudden cardiac death with these instruments.

© 2018 Limited Liability Company KlinMed Consulting. All Rights Reserved. Purpose: to elucidate predictors of development of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) after acute pulmonary artery thromboembolism (PTE). Material and methods. We included in this study 210 patients hospitalized with diagnosis of submassive and massive PTE from 2013 to 2017. In 1 to 3 years after initial hospitalization these patients were invited for control examination. According to results of this examination patients were divided into two groups: with (group 1, n=45) and without (group 2, n=165) signs of CTEPH. Severity of pulmonary artery vascular bed involvement was assessed by multislice computed tomography (MSCT) angiography and lung scintigraphy. For detection of thrombosis in the inferior vena cava system we used ultrasound angioscanning. Examination also included echocardiography. Results. In the process of mathematical analysis, the following risk factors for the development of CTEPH embolism were determined: duration of thrombotic history (group 1 - 13.70±2.05 days, group 2- 16.16±1.13 days, p=0.015), localization of venous thrombosis in the lower extremities (the most favorable - shin veins, popliteal, and common femoral veins, unfavorable - superficial femoral vein). The choice of the drug for thrombolytic and anticoagulant therapy: streptokinase and urokinase were significantly more effective than alteplase, rivaroxaban was superior to the combination of unfractionated or low molecular weight heparins with warfarin. Also, risk factors for the development of CTEPH were the initial degree of pulmonary hypertension and tricuspid insufficiency, as well as the positive dynamics of these indicators at the background of thrombolytic or anticoagulant therapy. Of concomitant diseases, significant risk factors for development of CTEPH were grade 3 hypertensive disease, diabetes mellitus, postinfarction cardiosclerosis. On the other hand, age, gender, degree of severity at the time of admission, presence of infarction pneumonia, surgical prevention of recurrent pulmonary embolism, number of pregnancies and deliveries, history of trauma and malignancies, cardiac arrhythmias produced no significant impact on the development of CTEPH.

© 2018 Ima-Press Publishing House. All rights reserved. Objective: to determine risk factors (RFs) for venous thromboembolic events (VTE) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Subjects and methods: The investigation enrolled 374 patients (311 women and 63 men) with a reliable diagnosis of RA who met the 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria. The patients' mean age was 53.7±13.6 years; the disease duration was 12.1±10.7 years. All the patients were treated at the V.A. Nasonova Research Institute of Rheumatology Clinic during the period from 2014 to 2017. A standard clinical examination of the peripheral joints was performed. RA activity was measured using DAS28. A survey was made using a questionnaire including questions on traditional RFs for VTE and RFs that might be caused by RA and its therapy. Results and discussion. VTE were recorded in 45 (12%) out of the 374 patients. Group 1 included 45 patients with VTE; Group 2 consisted of 329 patients without VTE. Multidimensional analysis showed an increased risk of developing VTE in RA under the influence of the following factors: high inflammatory activity; lower extremity varicose veins; hypercholesterolemia; and hypertension. Their weighted coefficients were 1.1, 2.5, 1.0, and 0.9, respectively. According to the obtained model (p<0.001), the risk of VTE in RA can be predicted by the following formula: Z = 1.1 • high RA activity (Yes = 1/No = 0) + 2.5 • lower extremity varicose veins (Yes = 1/No = 0) + + 1.0 • hypercholesterolemia (Yes = 1/No = 0) + 0.9 • hypertension (Yes = 1 / No = 0). Conclusion: The increased risk for VTE in RA patients determines the need for its timely assessment, by taking into account the known risk factors as both standard ones and those caused by the disease itself and its therapy. This risk assessment is necessary for the timely adequate treatment and prevention of thrombotic events in RA.

The prevalence of tooth caries and periodontitis in pregnant women has been studied; susceptibility of pregnant women to a high risk of development of dental pathology. Proven factors that modify the risk of tooth caries, periodontitis of mild and moderate severity in pregnancy are age over 30 years, repeated childbirth and pregnancy, complications of the gestational period, and for periodontitis, additionally - diseases of the digestive system, musculoskeletal system , anemia and metabolic-endocrine disorders.

© Ima-Press Publishing House. All rights reserved. Interleukin 6 (IL-6) plays an important role in the pathogenesis of ischemic stroke (IS), exerting a modulating effect on a number of processes that determine the outcome of this disease. Objective: to investigate the peripheral blood levels of IL-6 in patients in the acute period of different IS pathogenetic subtypes and its effect on recovery rates. Patients and methods. The study enrolled 155 patients (74 men and 81 women; mean age, 63.8 years). A control group consisted of 28 people without IS. Pathogenetic subtype II was established in accordance with the TOAST (Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) criteria on the basis of their clinical picture and the data of computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasonography of the main arteries of the head. The severity of a patient's condition and a focal neurological defect and the time course of clinical changes after stroke were determined using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). An enzyme immunoassay (EIA) was used to measure IL-6 levels on days 1, 7, and 21 after onset of IS. An enzyme immunoassay (EIA) was used to measure IL-6 levels on days 1, 7, and 21 after onset of IS. Results. In the acute period of IS, there were significantly elevated levels of IL-6. The latter reached its highest values on day 7 in patients with the atherothrombotic pathogenetic subtype of IS. On day 7 of the study, the peak concentration of IL6 was typical for patients with all subtypes of IS, except for lacunar stroke. After its increase on day 1 of the study, the IL6 level in patients with lacunar stroke did not change significantly in all other periods. In acute IS, the concentration of IL-6 was significantly influenced by the following cardiovascular risk factors: hypercholesterolemia of days 1, 7 (p<0.01) and 21 (p<0.05), hypertension in day 1 (p<0.05), diabetes mellitus on days 1 and 7 (p<0.05), and coronary heart disease in all the study periods (p<0.01). The IL-6 concentration significantly correlated with the severity of neurological defect, but did not significantly affect the rate of recovery in the patient with acute IS. Conclusion. IL-6 was established to be of prognostic value for the outcome of acute IS on day 7. The rate of recovery can be used to identify targets for therapeutic intervention.

© 2018 Media Sphera Publishing Group.All Rights Reserved. The article presents data of domestic and foreign authors on the relationship between occupational factors and arterial hypertension. The role of latent arterial hypertension, its frequency in the population, the lesion of the target organs and the prognosis in comparison with normotensive individuals, arterial hypertension of the "white coat" and stable arterial hypertension have been analyzed. Arterial hypertension in the workplace is a form of latent arterial hypertension. The authors review the influence of harmful production factors (physical, chemical), as well as psychosocial stress on the risk of developing arterial hypertension.The risk of developing hypertension in specified groups of workers has been analyzed separately. The place of production-related diseases in modern occupational pathology in the Russian Federation. A wider implementation of measures aimed at early diagnosis and prevention of arterial hypertension in workers is proposed.

© 2018 Vserossiiskoe Obshchestvo Kardiologov. All rights reserved. Aim. To evaluate the prevalence of arterial hypertension (AH) in heart transplant recipients, and its influence on the risk of adverse events, as the efficacy and safety of antihypertension medications (AHM). Material and methods. To the study, were consequently included all heart transplant recipients operated in the Shumakov Centre during the years 2013 to 2016 and survived 90 days after orthotopic heart transplantation. Results. Totally, 353 recipients included, with AH or AHM intake in anamnesis in 62 (17,6%). Within 90 days post surgery, AH that demanded for medication therapy was found in 151 (42,8%) patients. In posttransplant AH patients there were the following specific parameters in preoperational period: higher body mass index - 25,7±4,1 vs 24,9±4,4 (р=0,026), blood creatinine concentration - 100,6±62,6 vs 68,8±4,8 (р<0,001), donor heart posterior wall thickness - 11,9±0,8 vs 11,3±0,7 (р=0,034), creatinine concentration in 3 month after operation - 131,7±101,6 vs 94,1±46,5 (p<0,001). There was relation revealed, of AH development risk with anamnesis of AH and renal failure, as a necessity for renal replacement therapy within 30 days post surgery and episodes of acute antibody-mediated reaction on transplant. In the recipients taking angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ACEi/ARB) before operation, the survival rate free from adverse events was better than in those taking calcium channel blockers (CCB) (plog-rank=0,042). Conclusion. The results of the study point on high prevalence of AH in heart recipients. Presence of AH in anamnesis, renal failure, episodes of humoral, but not cellular, reaction to the transplant, and donor heart hypertrophy do significantly increase the probability of AH development after transplantation. Comparison revealed significant benefit of ACEi/ ARB versus CCB as antihypertension medications in either monotherapy or in combination with diuretics.

© 2018 Vserossiiskoe Obshchestvo Kardiologov. All rights reserved. Aim. Assessment of the dynamics of arterial hypertension (AH), coronary heart disease (CHD), postinfarction cardiosclerosis (PICS), stroke, cardiovascular risk factors prevalence by visit, during 6 years in the inhabitants of rural areas. Assessment of the impact of prevention events on the revealing rate of cardiovascular diseases. Material and methods. In the years 2015-17, a retrospective analysis was done, of the database on 2202 adults (≥18 y.o.) in Mokshinskaya rural outpatient facility. Of those 970 (44,1%) males and 1232 (55,9%) females. Study object - the reports for 2011-2016. For statistics, the IBM SPSS 21.0 was used, together with WinPEPI 10.49. Precise Fisher test applied and chi-square by Pearson. Statistics borderline set to 5%. Results. In 2016г the prevalence of AH - 9,54% (of all adult population), CHD - 2,00%, PICS - 0,59%, stroke - 0,27%. Prevalence increase by: AH - 32,5%, diabetes - 30,6%, obesity - 52,4%. There was tendency to decline of all CHD cases number: from 3039,8 by 100 thousand persons to 1998,2 by 100 thsd. PICS values did not change significantly. Cardiovascular mortality in the studied population was slightly higher - 7,3 promille in 2016, than cardiovascular mortality by Rosstat data - 6,2 promille and correlates strongly negatively with prevention events that have been performed. Conclusion. During a 6 year period there is significant increase of AH, diabetes, obesity prevalence that correlates significantly with prevention events. Nevertheless, the data on 2016 remains below mean statistics for entire country, except on obesity. Increase of the number of obesity persons by 52,4% is a serious medical and social problem of the studied population. It is a risk factor sreiously influencing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

© 2018 Vserossiiskoe Obshchestvo Kardiologov. All rights reserved. Aim. To analyze the specifics of comorbidity forming and age-related correlations of the risk factors (RF) distribution in arterial hypertension (AH) patients living in rural areas. Material and methods. In 2015-2017 a retrospective analysis of 2500 patients database was done at two general practitioners offices in Konakovsky District of Tverskaya Oblast. Of those, 350 were selected (14%) at the age 44-53 (164 males, 186 females) among the charts containing most complete data on the dispanserization. Additionally, surveying of the group was done for more detailed retrospective analysis of comorbidity and RF existence during lifetime of 25-35 years. Results. In the structure of comorbidity AH predominates, which has been diagnosed in 50,86%of patients; mostly it is diagnosed at the age 44-53 (81,06%). After AH, 2nd place is held by dorsopathies (24%), 3rd - gastrointestinal disorders (12%). For chronic pulmonary obstructive disease and cerebrovascular disease - it is less than 3%. 96,1%of men with AH are smokers at the age 18 to 53 y. o. By the age 53, in 40,26%of men and 36,63%of women there is bodyweight increase; and raised cholesterol - in 48,05%and 22,77%, respectively. Conclusion. In rural areas inhabitants, the formation of comorbidity is ongoing mostly at age 44-53 y. o. Of the specifics of comorbidity in these patients, there is often combination of AH with dorsopathies, and quite rare - with chronic obstructive lung disease or cerebrovascular diseases. The observed at the age 34-43 "diagnostic gap" points on the necessity for attention to this exact age strata with the aim of ontime diagnostics and early stages of diseases reveal. The structure of RF during the lifetime is not homogenic and is the highest at the age of comorbidity forming (except smoking and professional harms). All the considered RF are more prominent in men than in women.

© 2018 Ima-Press Publishing House. All rights reserved. Objective: to determine the main factors associated with the development and manifestations of anxiety and depression spectrum disorders (ADSDs) in patients with Behcet’s disease (BD). Subjects and methods. This investigation was conducted within the framework of the interdisciplinary scientific program «Stress factors and mental disorders in rheumatic diseases». A total of 116 patients with BD were examined. Most of them were men (69.8%), whose mean age (M±σ) was 33.4±9.82 years; the median duration of BD was 120.0 [70.0; 192.0] months; 51.9% of the patients were natives of the North Caucasus. All the patients had a reliable diagnosis of BD according to the International Study Group for Behcet’s disease (ISGBD) criteria (1990). Disease activity was assessed using the Behcet’s Disease Current Activity Form (BDCAF); the subjective status of patients was evaluated using the visual analog scale (VAS) for general health assessment. ADSDs were diagnosed by a psychiatrist according to the ICD-10 during semi-structured interviews using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAM-A), and the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS). Clinical and psychological techniques were applied to assess cognitive functions (memory, attention, and logical thinking); stress levels were estimated by the 10-Item Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-10). Results and discussion. ADSDs were diagnosed in 91 (78.4%) patients with BD. The predominant RTDs were dys-thymia (39.6%) and recurrent depressive disorder (38.4%). Generalized anxiety disorder was found in only 7.69%, a single depressive episode was in 13.2%. Different degrees of cognitive impairment (CI) were observed in 91 (78.4%) patients. Multivariate analysis and linear regression were used to build a predictive model, from which it follows that ADSDs in patients with BD are primarily associated with sleep disorders (β=0.412), asthenia (β=0.149), CI (β=0.137), chronic stress (β=-0.010) and its severity (β=0.134), early childhood psychic trauma (ECPT) before the age 7 years (β=0.152), the development of ADSD before the onset of BD (β =0.160), older age of eye involvement in the pathological process (β=0.089), gastrointestinal tract (GIT) involvement within BD (β=0.096), high C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (β=0.177), and poor subjective status of patients (β=0.120) (area under the ROC-curve, 0.940). Conclusion. Chronic ADSDs are encountered with high frequency in patients with BD and frequently occur simultaneously with the latter or during its development. Their occurrence is favored to the greatest extent by ECPT and obvious chronic psychosocial stress preceding ADSDs. GIT involvement, late-onset ocular pathology, high CRP levels, and poor subjective status are common to patients with BD and ADSDs. Sleep disorders, asthenic syndrome, and CI are significant in the pattern of ADSDs.

© 2018 Russian Transplant Society. All rights reserved. Tricuspid valve insufficiency is one of the most common variants of valve pathology of transplanted heart. The review is sanctified to the analysis of modern looks to on causes, potentially influencing on development of tricuspid valve insufficiency of transplanted heart, and also methods sent to declines risk his development.

© 2018 Media Sfera. All rights reserved. Endocrine ophthalmopathy (EOP) is a severe chronic autoimmune disease associated with autoimmune thyroid pathology that leads to loss of sight, cosmetic defects and quality of life decrease. EOP is difficult to give prognosis for due to various factors affecting its course and outcome. Purpose - to develop a reliable and precise prognosis method for EOP activity and severity based on personalized combination of risk factors in specific patients by multidimensional linear regression modeling. Material and methods. A group of 139 patients (278 orbits) with newly diagnosed EOP associated with toxic diffuse goiter was observed during 1 year by an ophthalmologist and an endocrinologist; patient examination interval was 6 months. More than 250 indices were dynamically analyzed in the course of the study. Linear regression analysis was chosen as the research method; it allowed detection of linear dependencies between dependent and explanatory variables. Results. More than 600 various linear regression equations were derived that enabled prediction of EOP onset risk and development timeline, estimation of activity and/or severity of the disease, duration of active period in specific patients for the immediate and long-term outcome. From the derived models, the most reliable and safest for practical application were picked out. The present study introduces nine optimized models that can be used for patient follow-up since day one. Conclusion. The onset risk, progression and outcome of the disease can be determined by a combination of factors revealed in the study.